BACKGROUND: Opioids are frequently prescribed for acute low back pain and opioid use for back pain is highest in Australia and the USA. (1) Recent evidence from the OPAL trial (2) suggests there is no benefit of prescribing opioids (oxycodone/naloxone) for acute low back pain compared to placebo. It is unclear the extent to which the results of the OPAL trial apply to clinical-, or policy-relevant populations in the United States of America (USA). If the distribution of potential effect modifying variables differs between the trial sample and the population of interest (i.e., USA), it is plausible that the treatment effect observed in the trial would not be seen in the population. we aim to estimate the transportability of oxycodone/naloxone compared to placebo for people with acute low back pain from the OPAL trial to a USA primary care setting.
METHODS: We will use individual participant data from the OPAL trial and individual participant data at baseline from the TARGET inception cohort study, a multisite inception cohort in the USA. (3) Both trials included adults with low back pain for less than 12 weeks, without any serious underlying pathology. We will investigate the effect of a combined modified release oxycodone/naloxone compared to placebo on pain, disability, opioid misuse and quality of life. We identified common baseline covariates that may modify the treatment effect: age, sex, pain intensity, duration of pain, presence of leg pain, disability and health insurance. We will assess standardised mean differences in baseline characteristics, where a difference > 0.1 is deemed meaningful. We will estimate the conditional average treatment effect of oxycodone/naloxone in the target population (the cohort). To adjust for differences between the trial and target cohort we will weight linear regression models by the inverse probability of trial participation.
Results will be finalised before June.